Boro’s recent struggles may come as a surprise to outsiders this season, considering the talent they boast on paper.
Many starting players excelled last season but have failed to really find their feet this time around. A key point throughout the season has been Boro’s xG (Expected Goals) under-performance. XG measures the probability of scoring a goal from taking a shot. This goes hand in hand with the number of big chances missed compared to the number of big chances created, with almost 75% of big chances going to waste for Boro.
Looking at xG in more depth, we can see that had Boro put away their chances in line with expectations, they should be 4th in the Championship league table. They currently sit eighth and that’s the joint 3rd biggest negative league position difference in the table.
While this should be taken with a pinch of salt, it is still worrying for Boro fans as in reality this means that they are struggling to score goals from positions in which they are expected to. Although confusingly, Middlesbrough have scored the third most goals in the division, only behind Leeds United. This can be understood by considering that Middlesbrough have scored a lot of goals from unexpected positions (outside the box, from long distances etc.) and this also ties in with the amount of big chances Middlesbrough have missed, undoubtedly upping their xG without upping their goal count.
One possible cause of Middlesbrough’s recent misfortunes could be the untimely injury and selling of certain players. Emmanuel Latte Lath, who is still Boro’s top scorer and holds the highest shot conversion rate in the squad despite leaving over a month ago on transfer deadline day. Another name whom Boro have struggled without is Ben Doak. The winger, currently on loan from Liverpool, has been out since early February but is still 2nd in assists, only behind Finn Azaz who has played 11 more games than the Scotsman. Since Doak has been out, Boro have struggled, only creating 10 big chances in the seven games he has been injured, scoring from eight of them. With numbers like this, Middlesbrough will struggle to reach the play off places, which is ultimately the goal come the end of the season.
| POS | DIFF | TEAM | PLAYED | xG | xGA | xPTS |
| 1 | 0 | Leeds United | 37 | 70.3+3.7 | 23.8+0.8 | 81-2 |
| 2 | +4 | Coventry City | 37 | 57.3-5.3 | 39.8-8.2 | 63-7 |
| 3 | +1 | Sunderland | 37 | 52.7+2.3 | 38.0+4.0 | 61+8 |
| 4 | +4 | Middlesbrough | 37 | 54.6+2.4 | 41.2-6.8 | 60-7 |
| 5 | -2 | Burnley | 37 | 42.5+7.5 | 29.4+18.4 | 59+16 |
| 6 | -4 | Sheffield United | 37 | 49.1+2.9 | 37.3-9.3 | 59+18 |
| 7 | +5 | Norwich City | 37 | 52.3+6.7 | 42.0-10.0 | 57-8 |
| 8 | -1 | Bristol City | 37 | 50.8-3.8 | 41.4+1.4 | 56-2 |
| 9 | -4 | West Bromwich Albion | 37 | 46.5+0.5 | 39.1+6.1 | 54+2 |
| 10 | +3 | Millwall | 37 | 42.4-6.4 | 39.4+0.4 | 52-4 |
| 11 | +5 | Swansea City | 37 | 45.7-7.7 | 47.9+0.9 | 50-6 |
| 12 | -1 | Sheffield Wednesday | 37 | 50.8+2.2 | 52.0-6.0 | 50+1 |
| 13 | -4 | Blackburn Rovers | 37 | 44.7-3.7 | 45.8+7.8 | 50+2 |
| 14 | +4 | Hull City | 37 | 42.8-4.8 | 46.3+0.3 | 49-9 |
| 15 | 0 | Preston North End | 37 | 41.2-4.2 | 44.1+1.1 | 47-3 |
| 16 | +7 | Luton Town | 37 | 40.7-6.7 | 48.7-11.3 | 47-13 |
| 17 | -3 | Queen’s Park Rangers | 37 | 39.1+2.9 | 44.3-3.7 | 46-2 |
| 18 | -8 | Watford | 37 | 46.6+0.4 | 54.1+4.1 | 45+7 |
| 19 | +3 | Derby County | 37 | 37.2-0.2 | 44.2-4.8 | 45-10 |
| 20 | -3 | Portsmouth | 37 | 44.5+0.5 | 57.2-1.8 | 44-2 |
| 21 | 0 | Cardiff City | 37 | 36.8+3.2 | 54.7-6.3 | 41-5 |
| 22 | -3 | Stoke City | 37 | 42.5-5.5 | 61.3+11.3 | 38+1 |
| 23 | -3 | Oxford United | 37 | 33.1+4.9 | 54.9-0.1 | 37+2 |
| 24 | 0 | Plymouth Argyle | 37 | 30.4+7.6 | 67.5-6.5 | 29+4 |
The xG table ranks teams based on their expected goals (xG) stats.
- Positive numbers mean a team is doing better than expected.
- Negative numbers mean a team is doing worse than expected.
- The small number next to the xG value shows the difference between expected and actual performance.
